By Tristan Marshall, Director, Platinum Property Solutions

Happy New Year and for the parents, don't those school holiday's last a long time these days? Writing about the state of the current market poses an interesting quandary - one person says sunshine, another says gloom; but very little of it has a basis in fact.

To me, markets tend to be driven by a number of factors, so I will address each as an individual topic and then look at these both from an investor and owner-occupier point of view. The factors that I believe most influence the market are supply and demand, affordability and sentiment.

It is very difficult to look forward in any situation without looking back to see where you have come from. In the case of the Victorian Property Market, it looks very much like the following. Firstly, we had two years of phenomenal growth (about 21.3%), followed by one year of being the worst performing of the capital cities, with a growth of -6.9%. So what caused this to happen? In 2009, the Global Financial Crisis hit the world. America's property market was on the skids - the majority of which was caused by an 8% vacancy rate across the country and NINJA loans (no income, no job).

This, combined with the world's largest economy having no recourse for a bank on loans once the keys to the property just financed were handed back, becomes a recipe for disaster. Suddenly, the asset books of banks are written back - credit becomes scarce, and the world realises there is not as much credit to go around.

So how does this effect Australia sentiment-wise to stop people spending? The supply of developer and purchaser finance dries up, with companies such as Capital Finance (owned by Bank of Scotland and one of the worst banks hit) out of the market. This means that new developments stall due to a lack of available funding. At the same time, the Reserve Bank slashes Interest Rates, and the State Government starts throwing around large chunks of cash for first homebuyers.

This in turn, means that suddenly affordability is at a level we haven't seen for some time; with lower interest rates and extremely low vacancies of 1.4% (3% is considered a balanced market) across Melbourne. Demand by investors is at a high, as is demand for owner-occupiers, with the First Homebuyers Grant spurring the market. Also, affordability of an upgrade in housing becomes a very real possibility for many Australian's.

This continues throughout 2010, with the economy booming due to mining. Supply of finance starts to ease towards the end of the year, as global markets settle and the U.S.A doesn't default.

Then there are a few political shenanigans, and we suddenly have a new Government. As someone who has a partner in mining, I get to see first-hand, the effect of a two speed economy. In keeping with tradition (no slow take offs, no soft landings), the Reserve Bank raises rates. Although many outside of the booming industries are suddenly struggling to make ends meet, and have realised that they have perhaps bitten off more than they can chew. Developer's resume business as the supply of funds is back, and towards the end of the year, we coin the phrase 'The PIGS of Europe'(Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain).

2011 begins and rates are up again, and mysteriously, the first homebuyer market that should be there is gone, as we pilfered it several years before. Suddenly, as a multitude of properties hit the market, the supply levels far outstrip the demand; rental rates start to drop, and investors who are faced with higher rates and less rental demand, withdraw from the market.

The press pick up on sentiment, and in the finest Australian tradition; try to build as much doom and gloom out of the situation as possible. This talk of recession makes people stop spending (the most likely thing to cause a recession), and retail sectors dry up. Unemployment levels climb, demand for housing falls, whilst supply levels keep increasing; as developers have committed a year at least, in advance.

Then, rates are cut again, so developers stop building to wait and see what will happen. This means that the massive oversupply of properties at the start of the year, begins to slowly level out as consumer sentiment returns. Investors who had left the market previously start to return, as the world's share market has now become a 'night at the casino', for even the best of stock pickers.

The newspapers still continue with the doom and gloom sentiment, but these articles are now sporadically interlaced with items reflecting a brighter future. For example, Japanese banks are looking to move into the Australian market, meaning more credit and better affordability.

Then 2012 rolls around. We are currently in Gong Xi Fa Cai, the Year of the Water Dragon, and a year which is said to bring great abundance and good fortune. Sentiment, I believe for the year to come, is less affected by the press; as people have become somewhat immune to the dreary spin of the Australian media, and for most, very little has changed in our day-to-day lives. The oversupply of properties that has existed to this point has begun to redress itself, and the first homebuyers market has started to balance itself out, as standard demand returns, without too much undue influence of Government.

Smart owner-occupiers looking for a home are also now realising that, if you sell in a bad market you will buy in a bad market, and vice versa. We have also noticed an upsurge in enquiry; meaning that demand is slowly, but surely, returning as sentiment gradually improves.

According to the Reserve Bank, the savings ration in the last two years has been higher than any other stage in the past two decades. The Central Bank is not sure if we will continue to save, or start to spend; my personal belief however, is that spending is a great Aussie traditions. Last July, Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans, predicated a 0.25% interest rate cut by December, followed by the same interest rate cut early this year - the other banks predicted rates to stay on hold.

Either way, affordability in the immediate term is not going to be adversely affected. Whilst there are areas of Melbourne that still hold an oversupply of rental properties, this should slowly dry up as the surge of land releases eases. Demand for good quality property near transport, along with employment levels remain strong, with generational change meaning that more people will ride, train or tram to work nowadays.

In short the worst is over, and all statistics point to a recovering market; with growing demand for well-located and well-presented properties, steadily increasing. If you are trying to sell, you still need to be realistic and understand that as long as you are buying again, what you may lose on the swings, you pick up on the roundabouts, when it comes to pricing your home for sale.

Investors this year take note: one of Australia's fastest growing demographics is the single person household. I think that this is an excellent time for investors, provided they choose wisely and look at what it costs them, rather than what it costs. Remember that the structure of your finance, entity and portfolio is just as important as the physical structure you are looking at.

Fear not doom and gloom merchants! Looking at the numbers, the Year of the Water Dragon does hold some good signs. Whilst the outlook for the market may not be the brightest of all time, rest assured that the sun is at last beginning to peek from behind the clouds.

2011 Real Estate Awards.

We are proud to announce that our Senior Property Manager, Jodie Lester has taken out the prestigious award of "Australasian Property Manager of the Year" at the recent Pittard Training Group awards gala dinner at the Sydney Convention Centre.

Sam and Andrew are very proud of Jodie for taking out this award and equally proud of the team who support her. Jodie made a fantastic emotional speech acknowledging Sam, Andrew and all of the Pennisi staff for helping contribute to her success.

Auction statistics should be questioned.  In recent weeks there has been considerable discussion about the reporting of auction results in Melbourne with real estate agents' statistics being challenged.  SQM Research has claimed that the Real Estate Institute of Victoria's figures are "inaccurate" and "misleading".

The research company argues that the Institute's data collection systems is flawed. The Sunday Age found that more than a quarter of auction results published by REIV in June were missing crucial information including the sale price, passed in price or reserve.

The REIV system has been queried because of a steep rise in the number of results that are not being disclosed by agents since the property boom ended early last year.

The Institute claims that its systems uses "transparent methodology". However it is known that in tough times it is not unusual for real estate agents not to report results.  This is blatantly obvious in the area in which we operate.  According to the REIV, the auction success rate in our area is currently between 55-60%.  But I am certain that it is a lot lower - probably between 30-35%.  To me, this confirms the vagaries of the auction system.  If people want to get a fair and genuine result when placing their properties on the market, I urge them to contact us.  Our sales system is based on "marrying" buyers and sellers.  Try us! - Andrew Pennisi

THE Real Estate Institute of Victoria has dumped its plan to crack down on estate agents who use misleading price advertisements, claiming that at $7500 it was too expensive to implement.

About 18 months have passed since the REIV board voted to ban ''price-plus'' advertising, with the industry body promising a new code of conduct that would punish member agents who used the practice with compulsory retraining, fines or expulsion from the group.

The announcement came amid growing public anger about under quoting during the 2009 property boom, when the REIV promised self-regulation after the then Labor government procrastinated on banning the practice. Price-plus has long been deemed misleading by Consumer Affairs Victoria.

Advertisement: Story continues below The ban was supposed to end the use of written and verbal quoting methods such as ''$500,000+'', ''in excess of'', ''opening bid'', ''offers from'' and ''expect over'' and require agents to advertise using a single figure, price range or no figure.

''The end result will be a positive for consumers and give some clarity and some consistency in the way that property prices are advertised," REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said in October 2009. "If members don't abide by it, then we take the appropriate action.''

But the REIV has since quietly dropped its plan, citing costs associated with getting a more restrictive code of conduct approved by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. ''We found that the cost of achieving the authorisation through the ACCC was quite prohibitive for us as a not-for-profit organisation,'' REIV spokesman Robert Larocca said.

The ACCC charges $7500 to apply for ''authorisation'' and it takes six months to complete. The REIV claimed there would be extra costs on top of that.

Former head of the REIV ethics committee John Keating said: ''It's nonsense that the institute allowed a fee of [$7500], which in the context of the issue is chicken feed, to prevent reform.''

Mr Larocca said the REIV now believes that any ban on price-plus advertising would only be effective if enshrined in law, making it apply to all Victorian agents and not just the nearly 80 per cent who are REIV members.

A spokesman for Consumer Affairs Minister Michael O'Brien was unable to confirm if the state government planned a ban.

Meanwhile, agents ignore price-advertisement guidelines implemented by CAV in 2007, and similar REIV guidelines. Last weekend, for example, a house in Fairfield advertised at "$900,000 plus" was passed in at $1,185,000 but later sold for $1.19 million.

Chris Vedelago theage.com.au

RULE 1: Stay away from the con artists.
by Neil Jenman.

Fear of poverty is one of our greatest fears. Fear of growing old is also a great fear. Therefore, together, the fear of being broke and old is terrifying for thousands of people.

And this is how thousands of people are being caught by the property con artists.

It's a well known ploy, and it's used by almost all the Australian property spruikers. They'll give you some twaddle about people being broke at age 65. Their aim is to scare you and then con you. In the world of cons, it's called making you aware of a problem and then claiming to have the solution to the problem.

No, it's the con artists who are the problem.

Trust me, almost every person who begins a talk by talking about how poor you're likely to be in your old age, is a person who's likely to: a) take thousands of dollars of your money to buy a knowledge course (or a series of seminars) that will claim to give you all the secrets you need to get rich in real estate; or b) sell you a property (without you realising that it could be over-priced by as much as $200,000!).

If you want to make money by investing in real estate then, believe me, your first and foremost goal must be 'stay well away from the property con artists'.

As the American billionaire, Warren Buffet says, "The first rule of investing is don't lose money. The second rule is to refer to Rule One."

How, therefore do you recognise the property con artists? After all, there are quite literally hundreds of people who will give you everything from a raw deal to a full-scale total con (where you lose your family home).

The property con artists all have a number of characteristics which are, unfortunately, also common to honest and legitimate property advisers.

Just be sure of one fact, however: the number of dodgy property operators probably exceeds the number of honest operators by a factor of at least ten to one. That's right for every honest property advisor, there are at least ten dishonest ones. In the property industry, the majority (dodgy rogues) give the minority (honest advisers) a bad name.

One of the surest signs that you are about to be ripped-off is when you meet someone who claims to "do it all for you". They often call themselves "one-stop-shops". You will almost always get a lesser quality deal when you fall for the "one-stop-shop" line.

You see, two of the essential protection points of investing in property is first, to use your own lawyer and second, to use your own valuer. Please, no short cuts on these two safety requirements.

Thousands of investors would have collectively lost millions of dollars simply because they used the lawyer recommended by the spruiker and they were told something like, "You don't need a valuation. If the property is not worth the price you are buying it for, the bank will not lend you the money." Rubbish.

When most property investors invest in property they have to offer their family home as security in addition to the investment property. This is a sure sign that the investment property is over-priced. If not, why would you have to offer your home as additional security? If the property is not good enough to be a 'stand-alone' investment, do not buy it.

When it comes to property investing, most people feel out of their depth. They are hungry for knowledge - and this makes them easy prey for the spruikers and con artists who make a series of wild and fanciful claims which cause wanna-be investors to part with thousands of dollars.

If ever you meet anyone who offers to teach you the secrets of property investing and they ask you to pay them more than, say, five hundred dollars, run a mile. Spruikers will charge what they can get away with. Some charge upwards of $25,000. They all justify their huge fees by saying that, with their information, you'll reap hundreds of thousands in profit. Baloney.

You can be almost rock solid certain of one immutable fact: If someone wants to charge you multiple thousands of dollars for a property information course, that person will be making more money out of 'course fees' than he (or she. There are now several dodgy female spruikers doing the rounds) ever made out of property investing.

I have never known any spruiker to publicly provide their tax returns or their profit & loss statements to prove the veracity of their claims.

So, look-out. Stay well clear of anyone who wants you to pay a lot of money to learn how to become a property investor.

It gets even worse, however, when you meet the another type of property spruiker - the one who claims to be able to teach you about property investing and then presents some "chosen" properties for you to purchase. This is by far the most common way that would-be investors get stung.

Open your eyes, look around you. Ask some obvious questions. Those hotel function rooms are expensive (it can cost around $10,000 to hire just a small room in a ritzy hotel).

And those full page advertisements. Some spruikers spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in newspaper ads.

And all those people (who claim to be volunteers or supporters), they usually earn thousands of dollars in commissions. All this money, this huge expense, has to come from somewhere. And, guess what? It ultimately comes from the hapless investors who buy property that has been 'loaded' up with expenses, commissions and profits. Stay away from the rah-rah crowd - please!

Okay, now that you know what not to do, what should you do? Well, I agree, the first thing you need to learn about property investing is the basics on how to do it. And, believe me, it's a lot more basic than you think.

Investing in property is a long way from rocket science. The two most important mathematical points you need to know when investing in property is first, the current yield and, second, the likelihood of capital gain.

Ideally, a good property investment will stand alone. It will support itself. In other words, the income from the property will more than cover the costs of holding the property. Be very careful of being told that the losses you make from property are tax deductible. A loss is a loss, whichever way you figure it. Some investors have such huge losses on their properties, that they struggle to make ends meet in their every day lives. This is madness. Property investing should improve your life, not ruin it.

In your quest for knowledge about investing in property, be sure to keep everything very simple, as basic as you can make it. For example, money in should be more than money out. You can't get much more basic than that.

There are a few good books that have been written on property investing. A Kiwi, Duncan Balmer, wrote a book called 'The Truth about Property Investing' (I am not sure if it's still in print). The Aussie lady, Margaret Lomas has written several good books about property investing. Get them all and read them all.

One of the most genuinely knowledgeable people in the property world is the journalist, Terry Ryder. Terry is a friend of mine; for years I have urged him to hold talks for property investors. But Terry refused to do what spruikers do - and hold seminars.

Finally, however, I am thrilled to say that Terry is now holding a series of "classes" (three-hour talks) to help new (and experienced) property investors. You can get more information at his web site: www.hotspotting.com.au.

This has been a brief introduction to the world of property investing. More information will follow in further parts; however, right now, if you heed the advice offered so far, you will achieve the number one goal of investing - staying safe.

Take care.

http://www.jenman.com.au/news_subscribers_item.php?id=261&Section=Articles

Sealed Bid  Auctions (also known as silent auctions) are quickly becoming more popular with home sellers. A group of real estate agents have been using ‘silent auctions’ for years. Today its movement is driven by educated and fed-up consumers and ‘outsider’ real estate agents.

Peter O’Malley, MD of Harris Partners a leading Sydney firm exposes the flaws of the Public Auction system.
He paints a clear picture of how home sellers lose money when they sell ‘under the hammer’.  He then explains how to get a higher price with a ‘silent’ or ‘sealed bid’ auction. So, if you’re thinking of selling your home, consider an auction – just make sure it’s a silent auction.

The main Problem with ‘Public’ Auctions  is they  will always establish the highest bidder but never establishes the highest price. Often the gap is tens of thousands
Peter explained; ”Agents love ‘public’ auctions, and the glory associated with a crowd”
Not to mention the advertising costs, and the fact that a ‘public’ auction places pressure on the seller.

If you are planning on selling a house, any time in your life – you must listen to this radio interview.

http://www.harrispartners.com.au/selling/silent-auction/

We don't just believe in keeping our clients up-to-date on rental matters.  

We have found the introduction of our complimentary property appraisal each year often delights our clients and gives them extra reassurance to see that on many occasions they have thousands of dollars in equity.

This equity can be used to increase your property portfolio, assist in taking a well needed holiday or simply give you peace of mind that your retirement is secure.

Would you like to receive this service for FREE each year to monitor the value of your property?  

If the answer is ‘yes’, contact our Department Manager Jodie Lester on 03 9379 5616

We will be holding property viewings on selected rental properties all weekend!

Please check our Inspection times for Saturday 8th January & Sunday 9th January 2011.

We are so proud to announce that our fantastic team are the recent winners of the 2010 Australasian Real Estate Awards Lesley Johnston Medal for Exceptional Client Care. The award is presented to the individual, or team, who demonstrated the most outstanding client care.

For the past 7 years our company has been dedicated to raising money for cancer research. What began as a comparatively small  team in the Moonee Valley Relay for Life, has grown into an annual Charity Ball with more than 150 guests, an entire month of our "Think Pink - Think Pennisi" campaign which contributes $500 of our selling fee to our cause, raffles, sponsorship and of course the annual 24 hour relay which attracts more than 100 participants.

Over the past 7 years we have raised over $100,000 for cancer research and we have no intention of stopping. Our entire team is dedicated to this worthy cause and could not be more humbled by receiving this well earned award.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank our clients, friends, families and staff who without their generous support would not allow us to contribute to cancer research is such a way.

Sam Pennisi

Rising interest rates are discouraging "first home buyers" from entering the property ownership market and is keeping them in the rental market. This is great news for investors!

Property investors, who are not deterred by rising interest rates, can look forward to strong rental returns as larger numbers in the rental market keep rents from falling.

A survey released by e-choice recently found that 41 per cent of would-be first time property owners/investors would reconsider if rates rose by 2 per cent.

The buying trend is moving towards first home buyers pulling out of the property market and opting to rent, while investors who are in a position to grow their property portfolio will be dominant in the market place.

 It is becoming too expensive for first time buyers to enter the property market, as well as money lent by banks being very stringent and tight during the approval process.

If you are one of these Investors looking to increase your portfolio contact our Sales Department or our Project Management division.

If you don't currently have your assets professionally managed by our highly qualified team don't delay contact Jodie Lester and she will give you 3 months commission FREE *

*conditions apply

The Pennisi Team are all Pinked up this month.

You may be aware that Pennisi goes Pink in October. You may or may not know why. Our annual “Think Pink Think Pennisi” campaign is to help raise funds & awareness for cancer research.

In October, Pennisi will cover the local area with pink signs, pink staff and all things pink! More importantly Pennisi Real Estate will be donating $500.00 from our selling fee to the Cancer Council Victoria for cancer research.

So, now, more than ever we are looking for sellers! Have you considered selling your property? Or do you know someone that is? List your property this month with Pennisi and be part of something extra.

Think Pink Think Pennisi

This rain is getting ridiculous. We feel like we might need to get out the Ark! (That was a biblical reference to Noah’s Ark and the flood that preceded its creation).

Spring days are supposed to be a little fresh, but not raining day in, day out! This is the time all the agents spruik about being a good time to sell! They want their auctions full of sunshine and loads of people. People tend to stay at home when the rain arrives.

Nevermind, it’s still a good time to sell at Pennisi, we don’t rely on the weather to find our buyers, we simply keep excellent records of all the people that call us, and then when the perfect property arrives, we give them a call! It’s innovative we know!

Rain, hail or shine we’ll sell your property. Just like the postal service the weather doesn’t faze us!

Interest rates have been kept on hold

The Reserve Bank has granted Australia's borrowers a reprieve, leaving interest rates unchanged for a fifth month as inflation remains subdued even as the economy gathers pace. The dollar sank on the news.

The central bank left its key cash rate at 4.5 per cent, defying widespread expectations that it would increase it to 4.75 per cent.

Holders of a typical $300,000 mortgage are already paying $300 a month more than they were a year ago, when the RBA began the first of six rate rises to bring borrowing costs back towards their long-term levels as the economy bounced back.

The reprieve for borrowers may be short-lived, though, with the big commercial banks flagging their intention to pass on rising funding costs in the form of higher interest rates - perhaps as early as today.

And the prospect of an official rate rise still looms after the RBA hinted strongly last month it will use rate rises to combat inflation pressures from the booming commodity export sector. Inflation figures for the September quarter are due on October 27, just days before the central bank's next interest rate meeting.

The Australian dollar shed almost three-quarters of a US cent on the news as investors pared back their expectations of higher rates ahead. It traded recently at just over 96 US cents.

It may still be a little chilly outside… but we are starting to see some fantastic sunny days… and what would Melbourne be without a bit of here and there with the weather?

With sunny days comes spring, and with spring – Daylight Savings! How quick was that, barely even a chance to get over Christmas and BAM – Summer 10! Our days will become longer at 2AM this Sunday October 3. Don’t forget to set your clocks forward one hour on Saturday night.

As always now is also a good time to check your smoke alarm batteries, this keeps us all safe (plus it's harder for us to sell and rent houses that are burned down!)